Assumptions are Like Russian Roulette. Validate or Vaporize Them.
In startups, most failures don’t come from bad ideas. They come from unproven assumptions. An assumption is something you believe to be true but haven’t tested yet. And every untested assumption is a risk quietly waiting to break your business.
That’s why experienced founders live by a simple rule: Every assumption is a risk. Validate it or eliminate it. Have you determined which is your “leap of faith” assumption? If incorrect, it could potentially crater your startup.
The big question is, how can you test and eliminate it?
What Does This Really Mean?
When you start a company, you make assumptions everywhere:
- Customers have this problem
- I can help everyone
- They care enough; therefore, they will pay for it
- My solution is better than the alternatives
- You can reach customers at a reasonable cost
- The technology will work as expected
None of these are facts on day one. They are guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses all the same.
The danger comes when founders treat assumptions like facts. That’s when teams spend months building features nobody wants, pricing products incorrectly, or chasing the wrong customer archetype(s). Validation turns belief into evidence. Elimination removes false ideas before they cost you time, money, or everything.
Why Assumptions Are So Risky
Assumptions hide inside confidence. Founders are often passionate, innovative, and convincing even to themselves. But confidence doesn’t reduce risk. Evidence does.
Every assumption has a blast radius. Some are small, such as determining which color button converts better. Others are fatal, like whether anyone actually wants your product. Or you’re actually solving “everyone’s” hair-on-fire problem.
The biggest risks usually sit at the foundation:
- Problem assumptions
- Customer assumptions (such as everyone is your customer)
- Willingness-to-pay assumptions
If these are wrong, nothing else matters.
Step One: Make Assumptions Visible
You can’t manage what you can’t see. Start by writing your assumptions down. Literally.
Ask:
- What must be true for this business to succeed?
- What am I most unsure about?
- What would kill this startup if I’m wrong?
Then rank assumptions by risk:
- Highest impact if wrong (leap of faith)
- High impact if wrong
- Low confidence today
These should be at the top of your testing list.
Step Two: Turn Assumptions into Testable Hypotheses
A reasonable hypothesis is clear and measurable.
Bad assumption:
“Customers will love this.”
Good hypothesis:
“Small manufacturing company, generating over $10 million, VP of Operations will pay $99/month to reduce downtime by at least 10%.”
Now you have something you can test.
Step Three: Test with an Experiment
Validation is not about perfection. It’s about speed and learning.
Ways to test assumptions:
- Customer interviews (listen more than you talk)
- Landing pages with sign-up buttons
- Pre-orders or waitlists
- Concierge MVPs (fake until you make)
- Prototypes
- A/B tests
- Get currency today (money, MOU, LOI)
Your goal is not to prove you’re right. Your goal is to learn fast.
Step Four: Look for Evidence, Not Encouragement
Friends saying “that’s cool” is not validation. Neither is polite interest.
Real validation looks like:
- Customers changing behavior
- Customers spending time
- Customers paying money
- Customers asking when they can buy again
If the evidence is weak, don’t rationalize it away. That’s how startups stall and fail.
Step Five: Validate or Eliminate No Middle Ground
When the data comes back, make a decision:
- Validated → double down
- Invalidated → change or kill the assumption
This is where discipline matters. Great founders let go of ideas that don’t survive testing. Average founders fall in love with them and go down with the ship.
Eliminating an assumption early is a win, not a failure. Keep in mind opportunity costs.
Why This Mindset Changes Everything
This approach saves time, money, and morale. It turns startups from opinion-driven to evidence-driven. It also builds credibility with investors, partners, and customers.
Most importantly, it replaces guessing with learning.
Have you ever wondered what failing fast means? It means that if something will eventually fail, why not fail it today and work on something bigger and more certain.
Final Thought
Startups are not built by being right all the time. They’re built by finding out what’s wrong before it’s too late.
Every assumption is a risk.
Validate it or eliminate it.